Should We Be Worried About Asteroid YR4’s Rising Impact Odds?

Remember 2024 YR4, the asteroid NASA identified last week with a one-in-83 chance of colliding with Earth in 2032?

Well, there’s both good and bad news.

First, the bad news: NASA experts have now revised the odds of impact to one in 43.

The good news? Scientists still insist there’s no reason to panic, even though they can’t entirely rule out the possibility of a collision.

Last week, the European Space Agency (ESA) estimated a 1.3 per cent chance of YR4 striking Earth on 22 December 2032. However, NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) has now increased that probability to 2.3 per cent.

NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile first spotted 2024 YR4 in late December while scanning for near-Earth objects. The sighting was reported on 27 December 2024 to the Minor Planet Centre, the official body for tracking new asteroids, small celestial bodies, and comets.

YR4 is estimated to be between 40 and 90 metres wide (130 to 300 feet) based on its reflected light.

According to the ESA, asteroids of this size typically strike Earth every few thousand years and can cause significant regional damage. As a result, YR4 has risen to the top of the ESA’s asteroid risk list.

At this stage, pinpointing the exact location of an unlikely impact is difficult. However, a recent warning from the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) suggests the potential impact zone could span the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.

If YR4 were to hit Earth, it could cause severe blast damage up to 50 kilometres from the impact site, according to IAWN.

Currently, YR4 holds a Level 3 rating out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, meaning it is considered worthy of attention by astronomers. A collision is only considered certain when an object reaches a Level 8, 9, or 10, with higher ratings indicating greater potential destruction.

That said, YR4’s rating is significantly higher than any other asteroid currently being monitored.

Dr Shyam Balaji, a researcher in astroparticle physics and cosmology at King’s College London, emphasised the importance of context when assessing YR4’s risk.

More than 33,000 near-Earth asteroids have been discovered and tracked since 1990, so 2024 YR4 is just one of many under observation, he told Forbes. While the public need not be overly concerned, continued monitoring is necessary.

CNEOS reports that while YR4 has six potential Earth impact scenarios between 2032 and 2071, the probability decreases with each subsequent pass.