Global Food Self-Sufficiency Under Threat, Study Finds

A groundbreaking study published in Nature Food has revealed that if global food trade were to halt suddenly, most countries would struggle to feed their populations across key food categories. Conducted by researchers from the University of Göttingen and the University of Edinburgh, the study analysed the self-sufficiency of 186 countries in seven essential food groups: legumes, nuts and seeds, vegetables, fruit, starchy foods, dairy, meat, and fish.

Using data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), researchers found that only Guyana, a small South American nation with a population of around 800,000, could independently meet the nutritional needs of its citizens across all seven categories. China and Vietnam follow closely, each being self-sufficient in six out of seven groups. However, the majority of countries fall significantly short—154 countries could meet the requirements of only two to five food categories.

The findings raise serious concerns about global food security. Just one in seven countries is self-sufficient in five or more food groups, and many are over-reliant on a single trade partner. Countries such as Afghanistan, Iraq, the UAE, Qatar, Macao, and Yemen were found to be entirely dependent on imports for all seven food groups, leaving them highly vulnerable to global supply disruptions.

Urgent Call for Resilient Food Systems

The study comes amid growing geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions, notably those imposed by the United States following Donald Trump’s return to the presidency in 2025. Researchers warn that these developments further endanger global food systems.

“Building resilient food supply chains is imperative for ensuring public health,” stressed Jonas Stehl, lead author and researcher at the University of Göttingen. Co-author Alexander Vonderschmidt emphasised that open trade and agricultural innovation are essential in the face of worsening climate shocks.

With fewer than half of the countries producing adequate legumes and nuts, and only a quarter growing sufficient vegetables, the study urges governments to prioritise domestic agricultural resilience while maintaining open, diversified trade channels to safeguard global nutrition and stability.