FAO Forecasts Strong Global Food Output Amid Growing Uncertainties

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations has released its latest Food Outlook report, projecting a largely positive year for global food commodity markets. The report indicates that production is expected to increase across all major commodities except sugar, with record outputs anticipated for rice, maize, sorghum, and oilseeds.

Wheat production is forecast to see moderate growth, led by a 13 percent increase in the European Union due to improved weather conditions and a potential record harvest in India. Coarse grains, including maize, are projected to reach record levels, driven by strong yields in Brazil, the European Union, and the United States, where maize output may rise by 6 percent owing to expanded sowing. Southern Africa is also expected to benefit from favorable weather, further boosting maize production.

In the rice sector, the FAO forecasts a 0.9 percent annual increase, reaching a record 551.5 million tonnes, largely supported by production gains in Asia. International rice trade is projected to expand by 1.4 percent in 2025, with strong demand from Africa and increased exports from India and South America. Per capita rice consumption is also set to rise, especially in low-income, food-deficient countries.

Rising Import Bills and Persistent Threats to Poultry

The global food import bill for 2024 is estimated to have grown by 3.6 percent to nearly 2.1 trillion dollars. This growth was largely driven by higher import costs for coffee, tea, cocoa, spices, fruits, vegetables, and meat, while import costs for cereals saw a decline. For 2025, trade tensions, policy uncertainties, adverse weather, and supply chain disruptions are likely to affect import costs and volumes.

The report also highlights the ongoing threat of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) to the global poultry sector. Since 2022, outbreaks have impacted over 173 million chickens in the United States alone, resulting in outbreak management costs exceeding 1.4 billion dollars. While broiler production remains stable due to shorter cycles and closed systems, egg production has faced significant disruptions, contributing to global price volatility.