AI Set to Supercharge Global Trade

Artificial intelligence (AI) could lift global trade by up to 37 per cent over the next 15 years, according to a recent World Trade Organisation report. Global GDP is expected to rise by between 12 and 13 per cent under different scenarios, largely fuelled by gains in efficiency and productivity. The biggest boost is projected for digitally deliverable services—such as AI tools themselves—which are set to see trade increases in excess of 40 per cent.

AI is already reshaping how trade works. Improved supply-chain visibility, automated customs processes, fewer language barriers, enhanced market intelligence and stronger contract enforcement are helping firms—particularly smaller ones—navigate international commerce more effectively. Many small and medium enterprises are taking advantage of AI to deal with complex regulation and to reduce operational costs.

Risks, Divides, and the Road Ahead

Despite the optimism, the report warns of potential pitfalls. Foremost among these is the risk of a widening digital divide. Nations and firms without sufficient infrastructure, skills or investment in AI may fall further behind, potentially magnifying existing inequalities in trade participation and economic growth.

Another concern lies in geographic concentration. AI production and deployment are heavily focused in certain regions. Such concentration can skew benefits toward more advanced economies at the expense of others, unless global cooperation or policy frameworks intervene to distribute opportunities more widely.

Policy makers are being urged to craft stable, long-term frameworks that support AI adoption, investment in digital infrastructure and the capacity of smaller players. Trade regulations will need updating to keep pace with AI’s rapid developments. Ensuring that ethical, security and data-privacy concerns are addressed will be crucial, especially as AI becomes more deeply embedded in cross-border trade.

AI’s influence on global commerce appears set to be long-lasting. If managed carefully, the gains could be enormous: more trade, higher GDP, stronger inclusion for smaller firms. Without thoughtful policy and investment, however, the picture may be less rosy. Countries willing to invest in infrastructure, skills and equitable access may reap the greatest rewards from this next wave of technological transformation.